Currently, China and the U.S. disagree over Taiwan’s political status. Since 1949, Taiwan has been governed separately from mainland China as a thriving democracy. However, China views Taiwan as a “breakaway province” and vows to reunify the island with the mainland one day. In 1979, the U.S. severed diplomatic relations with Taiwan to recognize mainland China under the “One China” policy. Yet Washington has continued an unofficial friendly relationship with Taiwan, supplying arms and conducting trade with the island.
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Because China hasn’t ruled out attacking Taiwan and the U.S. hasn’t ruled out defending Taiwan, any misreading of intentions could easily spiral out of hand. A war over Taiwan would gravely threaten its democracy: we can look to China’s crackdown on Hong Kong as a sobering precedent for Taiwan under Beijing’s control. Taiwan’s fall would also wreak global economic havoc, as the island produces over half of the world’s semiconductors.
U.S. support for Taiwan should be unambiguous in the case of a Chinese invasion. Taiwan is a key strategic ally that shares the U.S.’ commitment to free markets and societies. Moreover, if the U.S. leaves Taiwan hanging, it will lose the trust of other allies such as Japan and Australia. There are three ways the U.S. can articulate this new policy of strategic clarity: |
The U.S. can also support democracy in Taiwan by strengthening its economic relationship with the island. In July last year, the U.S. and Taiwan held trade talks for the first time since 2016. However, we could go further and explore a free trade agreement with the island, which would help ensure its economic vitality under Chinese pressure. Taiwan is especially eager to upgrade its current trade agreement with the U.S., which is almost three decades old. Members of Congress have been supportive of this too.
Finally, the U.S. should continue its long-term “pivot to Asia.” Even if the war in Ukraine is our immediate priority, we cannot lose sight of China. To deepen its presence in Asia, Washington can coordinate with allies who are also invested in the stability of the region. For instance, Japan is hoping to establish stronger relations with the U.S. and Taiwan. All three governments would benefit from agreeing on a China strategy. |